Reforming for Value in a Multi-Vector Reality
For the participants of the MINEX Kazakhstan 2026 Forum, the challenge is no longer just finding the ore; it is navigating the complex “multi-vector” web of obligations that now accompanies the right to mine. Success in 2026 and beyond belongs to those who can align their corporate strategies with Kazakhstan’s sovereign ambition to transform from a raw material exporter into a technological prowess in the heart of Eurasia.
Executive Summary:
The Inflection Point
As the global mining community converges on Astana for the 16th MINEX Kazakhstan Forum on 15-16 April 2026, the sector is confronting a reality defined by the intersection of comprehensive constitutional reform, a radical re-engineering of the fiscal code, and a geopolitical strategy that seeks to leverage critical mineral endowments into sovereign technological capability.
The operational and strategic landscape of the Republic of Kazakhstan’s extractive industries is currently navigating its most profound structural transformation since the immediate post-Soviet era.
The outlook for 2026 is not merely one of regulatory adjustment but of a fundamental “reset” in the social contract between the state, the subsoil user, and the citizenry.
This report provides an analysis of these converging trends, offering a granular examination of the legislative, fiscal, and operational environments that define the Kazakhstan Mining Outlook for 2026.
The “New Era” of development, as articulated by the forum’s overarching themes, is characterised by a shift from volume-centric extraction to value-centric processing. This transition is underpinned by the implementation of the 2026 Tax Code, the enforcement of a rigorous new Water Code, and the restoration of state priority rights in strategic sectors such as uranium and rare earth metals.
Furthermore, the industry is operating within a “multi-vector reality”—a diplomatic and economic high-wire act where Kazakhstan positions itself as a neutral, reliable partner to the European Union, the United Kingdom, China, and the United States simultaneously. The development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) has ceased to be a theoretical ambition and has become a critical logistical imperative, receiving multi-billion-dollar financing to bypass geopolitical bottlenecks and secure the flow of commodities to Western markets.
1. The Macro-Strategic Context: MINEX Kazakhstan 2026 and the “Multi-Vector” Vision
The MINEX Kazakhstan 2026 Forum, scheduled for 15–16 April 2026 in Astana, serves as the primary barometer for the industry’s sentiment and strategic direction. Organised under the theme “Kazakhstan’s Mineral Resources: Reforming for Value in a Multi-Vector Reality,” the event underscores the nation’s attempt to navigate a bifurcating global economy while maximising the value of its natural resources.
1.1 The Strategic Pivot: From Extraction to Midstream Competence
For decades, the prevailing narrative of Kazakhstan’s mining sector was one of immense raw potential—a “periodic table elements” superpower exporting ores and concentrates. The 2026 outlook definitively shifts this narrative toward midstream and downstream development. The government has signalled that access to mineral resources will henceforth be directly tied to investment in technology and processing capacity.
This pivot is not aspirational but legislative. The regulatory overhaul driven by the Ministry of Industry and Construction forces subsoil users to adopt Best Available Technologies (BAT) and commit to in-country value creation. The MINEX forum’s agenda highlights this through its focus on “Technological Advancement,” specifically addressing the challenge of processing lower-grade deposits which constitute a growing share of the remaining resource base.
The “pressing question” dominating the 2026 discourse is whether the country can convert its reserves—particularly in tungsten and rare earths—into real market power by creating alternative supply chains “from mine to finished product”. This ambition challenges the historical dominance of off-take agreements that favoured the export of raw materials to processing hubs in neighbouring jurisdictions, primarily China and Russia.
1.2 “Policy Durability” in a Reforming State
A central tenet of the 2026 outlook is the concept of “Policy Durability.” Investors attending the MINEX forum are engaging in candid discussions regarding the long-term sustainability of the recent reforms. The tension lies between the state’s need to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) for complex, capital-intensive projects and the populist imperative to ensure that natural resource wealth works “first for the Kazakhstani people”.
This creates a complex operating environment where the rules of engagement are becoming more transparent but also more demanding. The era of “manual management”—where specific projects were pushed through via individual decrees or opaque agreements—is being replaced by systemic, albeit stricter, legislative frameworks. The forum’s sessions on “building foreign partnerships” and “strategic goals” reflect a desire to formalise these relationships within a predictable legal structure, moving away from the ad-hoc decision-making that previously characterised the sector.
1.3 The Geopolitical “Multi-Vector” Reality
The term “multi-vector” is critical to understanding the 2026 investment climate. Kazakhstan is actively diversifying its strategic partnerships to avoid over-reliance on any single geopolitical bloc.
United Kingdom
A strategic partnership roadmap focused on critical minerals and the circular economy is now in the implementation phase, encouraging British firms to invest in processing capabilities.
European Union
An MoU on sustainable raw materials aims to integrate Kazakhstan into the EU’s battery and renewable hydrogen value chains, positioning the country as a vital supplier for the European energy transition.
China
Continued deep integration in logistics and processing, exemplified by joint ventures in tungsten and uranium.
United States
Investment in rare earth exploration and processing technologies, driven by Western desires to diversify supply chains away from monopolistic competitors.
This multi-vector approach provides a layer of security for investors, as the state is incentivised to maintain a balanced playing field. However, it also introduces complexity, as mining companies must navigate sanctions compliance, export controls, and the competing strategic interests of these global powers.
2.The Constitutional and Legislative Architecture of 2026
The operational environment for 2026 is anchored by a wholesale reconstruction of the national legal architecture. Following proposals initiated in late 2025, Kazakhstan has moved toward a “human-centric” constitutional model that significantly alters the governance of natural resources and the legislative process itself.
2.1 The New Constitution and the Kurultai
The constitutional reforms, affecting approximately 84% of the basic law, have introduced a unicameral parliament, known as the Kurultai, comprising 145 deputies elected through a proportional system. This structural change is designed to streamline the adoption of laws and increase legislative accountability.
Key features of this reform include:
Legislative Initiative
The introduction of a “People’s Council” as a nationwide consultative body with the right of legislative initiative. This body introduces a formal mechanism for public sentiment to influence mining legislation, potentially increasing scrutiny on environmental and social impacts.
Human Rights Priority
The constitution now explicitly declares human rights and freedoms as the highest priority of the state. For the mining sector, this implies a more robust legal framework for labour rights, community consultation, and health and safety standards.
Presidential Oversight
While the parliament is strengthened, the President retains the right to determine the priority of draft laws, ensuring that urgent economic reforms—such as those related to the subsoil code—can be fast-tracked.
United States
Investment in rare earth exploration and processing technologies, driven by Western desires to diversify supply chains away from monopolistic competitors.
2.2 The “Rule of Law” and Investment Security
The constitutional overhaul aims to address one of the most persistent complaints from foreign investors: the lack of a predictable rule of law. By strengthening the independence of the judiciary and the legal profession, the state aims to provide a neutral forum for the resolution of disputes.
For the mining industry, this is a critical development. The previous reliance on the “good faith” of subsoil users is now buttressed by constitutional guarantees. However, this also means that the state’s enforcement mechanisms are becoming more legalistic and less negotiable. The “presumption of good faith” remains in the Subsoil Code, but it is now interpreted through the lens of strict compliance with the new constitutional mandates regarding environmental protection and social responsibility.
2.3 Subsoil Use Code Amendments: Tightening the Grid
The Subsoil and Subsoil Use (SSU) Code has undergone significant amendments to combat illegal extraction and strengthen investor accountability.
Signing Bonuses & Auctions
New rules require auction winners to pay signing bonuses before receiving mining licenses. Failure to do so results in a five-year ban on the company and its beneficiaries from participating in future auctions. This measure is designed to eliminate speculative bidding and ensure that only financially capable investors acquire subsoil rights.
Combating Illegal Mining
The amendments introduce severe penalties for “covert” mineral extraction disguised as pilot industrial mining. The movement of more than 1,000 cubic meters of soil or rock now requires specific justification, and violations lead to the immediate revocation of exploration licenses.
Electronic Documentation
A transition to a unified digital platform for license applications and reporting aims to reduce corruption and administrative overhead. By 2026, the state plans to inspect 440 sites for compliance, signalling a more proactive enforcement posture.
3. The 2026 Fiscal Framework: Taxation and Royalties
Effective from 1 January 2026, the new Tax Code represents a paradigm shift in how Kazakhstan captures rent from its natural resources. The code moves away from a purely revenue-focused regime to a differentiated, incentive-based framework designed to stimulate processing and exploration.
3.1 Mineral Extraction Tax (MET): The Progressive Approach
The most significant change for the mining industry is the restructuring of the Mineral Extraction Tax (MET). The 2026 code introduces a differentiated approach that penalises the export of raw materials while incentivising value addition.
3.1.1 Uranium MET Escalation
The uranium sector faces a particularly aggressive tax hike, reflecting the government’s desire to capture “super-profits” during periods of high commodity prices.
Base Rate Increase: The flat MET rate of 6% (effective in 2023) was raised to 9% in 2025, and for 2026, it transforms into a tiered system based on production volume.
4%
Up to 500 tonnes
6%
500 – 1,000 tonnes
9%
1,000 – 2,000 tonnes
12%
2,000 – 3,000 tonnes
15%
3,000 – 4,000 tonnes
18%
Above 4,000 tonnes
Price-Based Surcharge: An additional rate is applied if the weighted average price of U3O8 exceeds certain thresholds.
- Above $70/lb: +0.5%
- Above $80/lb: +1.0%
- Above $90/lb: +1.5%
- Above $100/lb: +2.0%
- Above $110/lb: +2.5%
This structure disproportionately impacts large-scale producers like Kazatomprom’s major JVs, effectively acting as a windfall tax. It forces high-volume producers to contribute a significantly larger share of their revenue to the state budget, altering the project economics for legacy assets.
3.1.2 Solid Minerals and Variable Royalties
For solid minerals (copper, gold, zinc, etc.), the 2026 Tax Code transitions toward a royalty-based system for greenfield projects. The rates are inversely correlated with the level of processing, creating a direct fiscal incentive for downstream investment.
| Product Stage | Royalty Rate (Approx.) | Strategic Intent |
|---|---|---|
| Raw Ore | ~13% | Penalise export of raw resources. |
| Concentrates | ~10% | Encourage basic beneficiation. |
| Processed Metals | ~7% | Incentivise smelting and refining. |
Additionally, a 0% MET rate is offered for five years for new “low-profit” deposits, aimed at encouraging the development of marginal or geologically complex assets that would otherwise be uneconomical.
3.2 Value Added Tax (VAT) and Corporate Income Tax (CIT)
VAT Increase
The standard VAT rate has increased from 12% to 16%. This increase raises the operational costs for mining companies, particularly regarding the procurement of goods and services. However, the VAT refund procedures have been simplified to mitigate liquidity constraints for exporters.
Corporate Income Tax (CIT)
The standard CIT rate remains at 20% for most mining entities. However, a differentiated rate of 25% applies to banks and gambling sectors, which indirectly affects the cost of domestic financing for mining projects.
Exploration Incentives: To counter the decline in reserve replacement, the code allows for 100% deduction of exploration expenditures. This is a crucial mechanism to encourage reinvestment in geological study, addressing the industry-wide concern regarding the depletion of the mineral resource base.
3.3 Dividend and Capital Gains Taxation
The tax regime for foreign investors has also tightened.
- Dividends: A progressive tax on dividends has been introduced. Dividends up to 230,000 Monthly Calculation Indices (MCI) are taxed at 5%, while amounts exceeding this threshold are taxed at 15%.
- Capital Gains: The exemption on capital gains from the sale of shares held for more than three years has been cancelled for non-subsoil users, changing the exit strategy calculations for private equity and institutional investors.
The Uranium Sector: Consolidation of State Power
Kazakhstan, producing roughly 21% of the world’s primary uranium, is not just a participant in the nuclear fuel market but its dominant hegemon. The 2026 outlook is defined by the state’s move to consolidate this position through the national atomic company, Kazatomprom, effectively reversing years of liberalisation in the sector.
4.1 Kazatomprom’s Priority Rights Restoration
Amendments to the Subsoil Use Code, signed into law in late 2025, have significantly expanded Kazatomprom’s privileges.
- Exploration Monopoly: Kazatomprom now holds priority rights to obtain exploration licenses for any prospective area containing uranium mineralisation. The “first-come, first-served” principle does not apply here.
- Resource Reservation: The company has the authority to reserve blocks containing uranium. Crucially, if a private subsoil user searching for other minerals discovers uranium, they do not acquire the right to produce it. Instead, they may be forced to relinquish the block to the state unless Kazatomprom agrees to a joint venture.
- Transfer Restrictions: For any new subsoil use agreement awarded to Kazatomprom, the transfer of rights is strictly limited. The national company must retain at least a 75% stake in the joint venture (up from the previous 50%), ensuring it maintains majority control.
4.2 Technology Transfer Mandates
A striking feature of the 2026 uranium policy is the “technology for resources” exchange mechanism. For the extension of existing subsoil use agreements or increases in production volumes:
- Kazatomprom must hold at least a 90% stake in the joint venture: OR
- The foreign partner must agree to transfer uranium conversion and enrichment technologies to Kazatomprom or a jointly established entity.
This requirement essentially mandates that foreign partners help Kazakhstan move up the nuclear fuel value chain—from yellowcake producer to fuel fabricator—as the price for continued access to its uranium deposits. This policy directly impacts major international partners and aligns with the broader industrial strategy of import substitution and high-tech development.
Critical Minerals and the Retreat from Liberalisation
While the 2018 Subsoil Code introduced the Western-style “first-come, first-served” licensing model to attract junior miners, the 2026 outlook reveals a strategic retreat from this model for assets deemed “critical” to national security.
5.1 The Return of Tau-Ken Samruk
The national mining company, Tau-Ken Samruk, is regaining its dominant position in the non-uranium sector.
Priority Rights Reinstatement: By 2026, legislation is expected to fully restore Tau-Ken Samruk’s priority right to obtain exploration and mining licenses for critical minerals (rare earths, tungsten, etc.) without a competitive auction.
Strategic Control: This move signifies a shift toward state capitalism, where the government secures control over the early stages of the supply chain for energy transition materials. It effectively reverses the liberalisation efforts that sought to bypass state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in favour of direct private investment.
5.2 The Tungsten Ambition
Kazakhstan holds the world’s fourth-largest tungsten reserves, and 2026 is the year it aims to operationalise this potential.
- Northern Katpar & Upper Kairakty: These world-class deposits are being developed under a joint venture between Tau-Ken Samruk and Cove Capital (USA), with an investment volume of approximately $1.1 billion.
- Processing Capabilities: The strategic goal is to commission a modern processing plant that allows for the deep processing of tungsten ores, moving beyond concentrate export to produce ammonium paratungstate (APT) or tungsten carbide. This project is positioned as a strategic alternative to Chinese supply dominance.
5.3 Rare Earths and Foreign Partnerships
The critical minerals sector is the primary beneficiary of the “multi-vector” foreign policy.
EU and UK Engagement: The partnerships with the UK and EU are focused on creating a “transparent and sustainable” supply chain. The EU’s critical raw materials act dovetails with Kazakhstan’s desire for technology transfer, leading to the establishment of regional research centres dedicated to rare earth analysis.
Independent Lab Control: To ensure the integrity of these supply chains, the government is establishing a roster of accredited independent laboratories. This is a counter-measure against the illicit export of valuable components often hidden in bulk ore exports, ensuring that the state captures the full value of its polymetallic deposits.
The Digital Geological Revolution
Perhaps the most transformative development for the 2026 outlook is the comprehensive digitalisation of the country’s geological data. The era of dusty Soviet paper maps is ending, replaced by an AI-driven, transparent digital infrastructure.
6.1 The National Geological Service (NGS) and AI
The National Geological Service has spearheaded a massive project to digitise the “primary geological information” of the republic.
4.7M
Storage items converted
AI
Integration for "blind" deposits
2.2M km²
Research coverage by 2026
Scale of Digitisation: By early 2025, nearly 4.7 million individual storage items—including 4.3 million paper sheets, 250,000 graphical appendices, and almost 100,000 magnetic tapes—had been converted. The project is on track for full completion by the end of 2026.
AI Integration: The NGS is implementing an AI-powered Big Data system. This system does not just store data; it interprets it. By applying machine learning algorithms to historical data from the 1950s-1990s, the state aims to identify subtle geological anomalies and “blind” deposits that were missed by conventional exploration methods.
Mapping Expansion: The government is expanding its geological research coverage from 1.5 million to 2.2 million square kilometres by 2026. This includes a shift to a higher-resolution 1:500,000 scale map, enhancing the precision of target generation for investors.
6.2 The Mining Startup Ecosystem
The digitisation drive has spawned a vibrant ecosystem of domestic “MineTech” startups, incubated within the Astana Hub. These companies are providing the software and hardware backbone for the modernised industry.
| Startup | Specialisation | Strategic Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Hard Code | Digital planning & positioning systems | Enables precise real-time management of mining fleets and excavation. |
| AppStream | Mining-specific ERP systems | Automates production processes, integrating geology, finance, and operations. |
| Manul Technologies | Hardware-software complexes | Optimises extraction parameters for oil, gas, and solid minerals. |
| minePASS | Safety & Underground Management | Digitalises safety protocols and personnel tracking in hazardous environments. |
| OAR | Digital Twins & VR/AR | Allows for simulation modelling of mine expansion and processing plant design. |
This surge in domestic innovation reduces the sector’s reliance on expensive foreign software and creates a local knowledge base that can export services to the wider Central Asian region.
Infrastructure and Logistics: The Middle Corridor Imperative
In 2026, logistics is no longer a support function; it is a strategic determinant of the mining sector’s viability. The geopolitical isolation of Russia has forced Kazakhstan to accelerate the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or the Middle Corridor.
7.1 Capacity Expansion and Targets
The capacity of the Middle Corridor is undergoing rapid expansion to meet the demand for exporting metals and hydrocarbons to Western markets.
- Volume Targets: The corridor’s throughput capacity is projected to reach 10 million tonnes per year by 2027, with a 2030 target of 11.4 million tonnes.
- Current Throughput: In 2025, freight traffic was expected to hit 5.2 million tonnes, with dry cargo (including metals) accounting for 2.5 million tonnes. Container shipments have quintupled over the last decade, signalling a shift from bulk to value-added logistics.
7.2 Key Infrastructure Projects
Major capital projects are coming online or advancing significantly in 2026 to debottleneck this route.
- Almaty Railway Bypass: A $300 million project funded by the IFC, AIIB, and others is constructing a 130km electrified railway to bypass the congested Almaty hub. This is expected to reduce transit times by 24 hours and cut congestion by 40%.
- Mointy-Kyzylzhar Line: A greenfield railway project in Central Kazakhstan designed to optimise the alignment of the corridor and increase capacity for transit and trade.
- Port Modernisation: The ports of Aktau and Kuryk have a combined capacity of 21 million tonnes. Investments are focused on expanding container handling facilities and upgrading ferry fleets to ensure seamless transshipment across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan.
This infrastructure build-out is critical for the mining sector, as it lowers the “logistics tax” on exports and provides a reliable route to market that is insulated from sanctions on Russia.
Environmental Constraints: Water and Land
The era of unrestricted access to natural resources for mining operations is over. The 2026 outlook is heavily constrained by strict new environmental codes, particularly regarding water usage.
8.1 The New Water Code: Water as an Economic Asset
The new Water Code, fully effective from mid-2025, redefines water from a “natural resource” to a “strategic economic asset”.
Priority of Protection: The code establishes the absolute priority of the water fund’s protection over its industrial use. Mining companies are now required to implement closed-loop water recycling systems.
Economic Deterrents: The previous system of negligible fines has been replaced. Companies failing to adopt water-saving technologies risk losing their water use permits entirely. Unauthorised withdrawal is subject to a fivefold penalty, making non-compliance economically unviable.
Impact on Operations: This is particularly relevant for the uranium sector (In-Situ Leaching requires significant groundwater interaction) and large-scale flotation plants. The “Polluter Pays” principle is now enforced through automated emission monitoring systems (AEMS) connected directly to the government database.
8.2 Land Code Restrictions
Amendments to the Land Code, effective 1 January 2026, have narrowed the spatial footprint available for mining.
- Protected Areas: The list of specially protected natural areas where mining might be allowed (with government approval) has been significantly reduced.
- Prohibited Zones: Exploration and mining are strictly prohibited in water fund lands, areas with potable groundwater, and lands designated for national security or urban infrastructure. This effectively removes large swathes of territory from the exploration map, forcing companies to be more surgical in their targeting.
Investment and Capital Markets
The financing of the Kazakhstan mining sector is increasingly centred on the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), which serves as a bridge between Western capital markets and Central Asian assets.
By the end of 2025, the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) saw its total registered participants exceed 4,900 companies originating from over 90 countries. While the mining sector remained a strategic priority—highlighted by the AIFC’s analytical report on Kazakhstan as a minerals investment hub—it represented 2% of the more than 1,400 new registrations recorded during the year.
The Astana International Exchange (AIX) achieved a record annual trading turnover of $2.1 billion in 2025, a significant 59% increase over the previous year. This growth was primarily fuelled by:
9.1 The Role of the AIFC and AIX
- Jurisdiction: The AIFC operates under English Common Law, providing the legal certainty required by international investors.
- Debt Listings: Contributing $1.7 billion to the total turnover, largely through several major debt programs.
- Equity Activity: Generating $0.4 billion in trading value.
- Resources Sector Milestones: Key events included the Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited IPO, which was the first cross-border listing between Kazakhstan and China and was denominated in Chinese Yuan (CNY).
- Junior Mining Hub: The AIFC is actively positioning itself as a hub for “junior” miners, offering simplified listing rules and access to a growing pool of regional capital. The presence of firms from China (35%), the UK, and Turkey highlights the “multi-vector” nature of the capital inflows.
9.2 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
By the start of 2025, Kazakhstan‘s total stock of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reached $166 billion, with the United States maintaining a significant stake of $40.1 billion. Despite global economic headwinds, the country continues to attract substantial capital by pivoting toward industrial diversification and strategic resource management.
The investment landscape is undergoing a structural transformation:
$3.2B
FDI into Manufacturing (9mo 2025)
$2.6B
FDI into Mining (9mo 2025)
23%
Manufacturing share of FDI Stock
- Sectoral Shift: Historically dominated by the oil and gas industries, capital is increasingly flowing into manufacturing. In the first nine months of 2025, gross FDI into manufacturing reached $3.2 billion, surpassing investment in the mining sector ($2.6 billion) for the first time since 2011.
- Compositional Changes: Over the past 18 months, manufacturing’s share of the total FDI stock grew from 16% to 23%, while the raw materials sector’s share declined from 50% to 39%.
- Critical Minerals Focus: To drive this diversification, the government has launched targeted initiatives, such as the Development Bank of Kazakhstan’s (DBK) $1 billion program (2025–2030) dedicated to the extraction and processing of critical materials like lithium, tungsten, and rare earth elements.
- New Regulatory Incentives: New policy frameworks include the Investment Policy Concept until 2029 and a digital “green corridor” for fast-tracked licensing. Additionally, a new tax code set for 2026 will introduce a royalty-based system for greenfield projects to further incentivize domestic metals processing.
Conclusion: The “New Era” Benchmark
The 2026 Kazakhstan Mining Outlook presents a picture of a sector that is aggressively maturing. The “wild east” days of easy access and loose regulation are being replaced by a sophisticated, state-guided industrial policy.
The government has successfully created a framework where:
- State Control is Consolidated: Through Kazatomprom and Tau-Ken Samruk, the state secures the lion’s share of strategic value.
- Revenue is Optimised: The 2026 Tax Code ensures that the treasury captures the upside of commodity super-cycles.
- Operations are Modernised: Digitalisation and the New Water Code force the industry toward efficiency and transparency.
- Logistics are Diversified: The Middle Corridor provides strategic autonomy.
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